Meet three independent voters weighing their options in key races in the upcoming midterm elections.
John Marvin lives in Florida. Sandi Hebley resides in Texas. And Sophie Gelling calls Pennsylvania her home.
They live in different corners of the nation, but they have one thing in common. They’re all independent voters weighing their options, figuring out what impact they might have on key races in the crucial midterm elections.
These voters are a fulcrum on which the middle shifts in every race. And their vote may never be as important. About 4 in 10 registered U.S. voters say they are independent, according to recent polls by Gallup and the Pew Research Center. Those findings are intriguing, especially in a polarized nation with a president who seeks to enact the SAVE America Act, which could jeopardize voter rights, according to John Opdycke, founder and president of Open Primaries, a voter advocacy nonprofit.
“A lot of people are noticing the rise of independent voters,” Opdycke said. He explained that fewer people want to be tied to the traditional parties, and more politicians are taking notice.
A snapshot shows that independent voters shifted between 8 and 11 percentage points toward Donald Trump in 2024, likely determining the outcome of the election, according to the Independent Center, a nonprofit advocacy group based in Washington, DC.
The Independent Center also said 43 congressional races were decided by 5% or less, also possibly determined by independent voters. And 34% of the 2024 electorate identified as independent, about as many as who said they were Republicans, according to the Independent Center. Notably, independents made up more of the voting population than Democrats at 32%, the organization said.
In Texas, Hebley’s general election vote could determine a close U.S. Senate contest between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican and Trump ally Ken Paxton. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, Geller will be factoring in the impact of her vote in Senate and House races on which party – and more pertinent, which agenda – holds power in Congress.
Independents have become the ultimate swing voters, Opdycke said. If they can’t collectively agree on a viable third-party candidate to support, they will be looking intently for one who best backs their views.
But the married father of two adult children who lives in St. Petersburg, Florida, is opting to do just that because his deep-red state’s Aug. 18 primary uses a closed primary system in which only registered members of a political party are permitted to vote.
And Marvin, who speaks readily about his desire for open primaries, has no interest in becoming a Republican or a Democrat. He feels, however, that primaries have become more crucial in such politically polarizing times.
“My tax dollars pay for these elections,” the recently retired education administrator said. “I feel like I’m an outsider looking in. I have a constitutional right to make my voice heard, and I shouldn’t be forced to associate with either of those parties in one of the most consequential midterm elections of this century.
“I believe (independents) now represent the plurality of the American electorate, but we’re still being squeezed out of the process” by party-based primaries, he said.
Marvin, 63, said he has considered himself an independent for most of his adult life, as he “never felt particularly comfortable” with either major political party. He has voted for candidates from both parties, choosing ones he thinks have the best interests of all Americans at heart.
“I just don’t like the constant fighting,” said Marvin, his voice rising. “I get so befuddled when the debates become shouting matches on even the simplest of issues to the point where nothing gets done. It’s so frustrating. So much time and money are being wasted.”
When he moved to Florida from Massachusetts more than 20 years ago for a job, Marvin said it felt more like “a purple state.” Now he thinks it has become “staunchly red,” led by the current GOP governor and former presidential candidate Ron DeSantis. Florida’s secretary of state and attorney general are Republicans, and the party holds the majority in both chambers of the state Legislature.
Although not personally a fan of DeSantis, Marvin acknowledges the governor’s popularity across the state and his ability to get the big things done.
“He’s been pretty effective on hurricane response and balancing the state budget, and I guess that has a trickle-down effect on voting for Republicans,” Marvin said. “With him now being term-limited, I wonder if Florida just might be more open to a Democratic governor or someone more willing to work across party lines?”
Though he acknowledges DeSantis has found some common ground with Democrats on the environment and disaster relief, Marvin hasn’t been crazy about the governor’s divisive stances on education and immigration, or his aggressive push to redistrict congressional maps to favor Republicans.
He doesn’t like that DeSantis quietly passed a law eliminating ranked-choice voting and that Florida passed a Republican-backed law last year that places severe new restrictions on ballot initiatives.
Several groups filed suit and challenged the law, arguing it violates First Amendment rights. After a two-month trial, a federal judge in April sided with the state against those groups seeking to amend Florida’s constitution.
Despite his concerns, Marvin said he’s not going to relocate. He is determined to make his vote and others’ votes count. He is keeping a very close eye on the primary race for governor to see which Republican candidate, the Trump-endorsed Donalds or Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, emerges; and which Democratic candidate, including front-runner Jolly, the former GOP lawmaker, will prevail against five other challengers.
Marvin also has an eye on Florida’s key Senate primary, and will be watching to see if GOP incumbent Ashley Moody has an edge over three other candidates and who will fare best in the Democratic race between Alexander Vindman, the former National Security Council director for European affairs, and Florida state Rep. Angie Moore.
He plans to be heavily engaged for November’s general election.
“I’m going to look at all of the players and races carefully, with a fine-tooth comb,” Marvin said. “And now that I’m retired, I’m going to look at them even more intensely and serve as a conduit of sorts for others who may not know the issues.”
A grandma unaffiliated and unwavering in Texas
As a longtime independent voter, Sandi Hebley can’t recall if she has ever voted a straight ballot for one political party. She said it’s not in her DNA.
“I’ve always prided myself in making my own decisions,” said the 77-year-old retired hospice nurse from Dallas. “It’s not unusual for me to vote for a Democrat, a Republican and an independent all on the same ballot.
“I tend to think that I’m voting for the best candidate. Regardless of their affiliation.”
Hebley remembers voting in 1980 for presidential long shot John Anderson, a GOP congressman from Illinois who fled his party to run as an independent against incumbent Democrat Jimmy Carter and Republican challenger Ronald Reagan.
She thought Anderson, a World War II veteran and 10-term congressman who was among the first GOP lawmakers to call for President Richard Nixon’s resignation when the Watergate scandal widened, became more moderate with his views.
Hebley liked how Anderson, who finished a distant third with 7% of the vote, took on both candidates and thought the two-party political system was broken. “To this day, I’ve never felt like I wasted my vote. I went with my gut; I always do,” Hebley said.
Now, the married mother of two adult children has to make another choice as her vote could help tip the balance in a clash between upstart Democrat Talarico, 37, and Republican Paxton, 63, over which party will control the U.S. Senate.
Tipping her hand, Hebley said she’s “leaning” toward Talarico and his messages about lowering the cost of living, making health care more affordable, boosting school funding and raising the minimum wage. She doesn’t care for Paxton, the Texas attorney general who was indicted and impeached on securities fraud charges but not convicted. She is eager to see whether the highly polarized candidates will agree to debate, a face-off that would draw national attention.
She’s also still upset with Gov. Greg Abbott’s controversial decision last year to redraw the state’s congressional map after Trump urged Texas Republicans to flip five U.S. House seats ahead of the midterms. The new map was signed into law, and the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the newly redrawn districts in April.
The GOP move in Texas sparked similar redistricting actions from both parties in other states. “I think a lot is on the line – again,” Hebley sighs. “The future of our country is at stake.”
Now she’s worried voters may be scared of something else preventing them from voting.
“I’m worried the state will send National Guard troops or ICE agents to try to intimidate voters, but I’m not going to let that stop me from trying to help them,” Hebley said. “I want to make sure everyone has a chance to vote.”
That also includes possibly voting for Mike Collier, who is running as an independent candidate for Texas lieutenant governor after losing campaigns for the post in 2018 and 2022 when he ran as a Democrat. The problem is Collier needs to get more than 81,000 signatures to get his name on the ballot in November. Collier has filed a federal lawsuit challenging the state’s ballot access laws, arguing they violate the constitutional rights of independent candidates and voters. A decision is pending.
“I think there are more obstacles to voting, to run for office, than I’ve ever seen before,” Hebley said. “There’s always a fight.”
Hebley is also proud to say she’s a member of the League of Women Voters and Braver Angels, the nonpartisan nonprofit that hosts cross-party discussions, debates and workshops to promote political depolarization between conservative and liberal voters.
Though she has helped people register to vote for decades, Hebley said she’s struggling with the fact that she hasn’t been able to persuade one special person, her 21-year-old eldest grandson, to exercise his right to vote.
“I’m heartbroken. It’s so sad,” Hebley said, her voice trailing off a bit. “He said: ‘Don’t even talk to me about it. (The candidates) are all crooks.’ I told him they all aren’t and that it might be better to have a say on which crook is worse than the other. I’ve tried to let that simmer in his brain.
Fighting not to be ‘shut out’
Sophie Gelling grew up in a family of independent voters in West Chester, Pennsylvania, about 25 miles west of Philadelphia.
Yet, she registered as a Democrat when she voted and served as a poll worker in her hometown during her first election in 2016. However, Gelling noticed that not everyone was allowed to vote. She felt awful turning away independent voters who were unaware of the state’s closed primary system.
The memory stayed with her. Fast-forward almost 10 years, and Gelling, who lives in Philadelphia, is now a registered independent voter fighting for open primaries. She’s inspired that two states, Nebraska and New Mexico, changed their primary systems to allow all registered voters to participate in the past year. Meanwhile, 17 other states have closed or partially closed primaries.
The Independent Center, the DC-based voter advocacy nonprofit, landed on a similar finding: 52% of Gen Z and millennials identify as politically independent. Only 7% of younger independent voters say they’re locked into voting for a major party, compared with 67% of older voters, the center found.
Gelling said that shows “a genuine dissatisfaction” with the more traditional “hard line” two-party system she thinks is stuck in its ways. Last month, Trump refused to sign a landmark affordable housing bill, complaining that Congress has not taken action to overhaul elections under the SAVE America Act.
“Being an independent to me means progress even though there are lines we need to work within to change rules for those who still feel locked out,” said Gelling, who became an independent in 2025. “It’s a civil rights issue – a voting rights issue.”
But independent voters face many challenges beyond being seen, heard and having their votes count, said Anthony Fowler, a political science professor at the University of Chicago.
Fowler, who specializes in political polarization, said one growing challenge is that the major parties have now become more nationalized, offering more consistently polarized platforms in local elections and races across districts and states.
“But moderates and independent voters are more influential on elections than they realize,” Fowler said. “Instead of blind party loyalty, they are highly swayed by the qualities of a particular candidate’s ideologies and willing to switch their votes between parties.”
“I feel very lucky to have a very robust, independent-minded community in a purple state,” Gelling said. “Independents paving the way for more people to vote is what brought me in and what will keep me here.
“The system can’t shut us all out.”